IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Utah St.
Mountain West
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	+11.5	#34
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	69.6	#150
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+6.6	#28

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+4.9	#47

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
#1 Seed	1.2%	1.2%	0.3%
Top 2 Seed	3.1%	3.2%	0.4%
Top 4 Seed	9.8%	10.0%	1.4%
Top 6 Seed	17.0%	17.4%	2.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	58.2%	58.9%	30.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	31.6%	32.2%	10.3%
Average Seed	8.5	8.5	10.7

.500 or above	98.3%	98.5%	89.7%
.500 or above in Conference	98.3%	98.4%	95.5%
Conference Champion	55.0%	55.5%	34.6%
Last Place in Conference	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%

First Four	5.7%	5.7%	3.5%
First Round	55.7%	56.4%	28.2%
Second Round	31.4%	31.8%	11.4%
Sweet Sixteen	13.6%	13.9%	3.2%
Elite Eight	5.8%	6.0%	0.9%
Final Four	2.5%	2.6%	0.4%
Championship Game	1.1%	1.1%	0.4%
National Champion	0.4%	0.4%	0.3%

Next Game: Montana St. (Home) - 97.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	1 - 2	1 - 2
Quad 1b	1 - 1	2 - 3
Quad 2	4 - 2	5 - 5
Quad 3	8 - 2	13 - 7
Quad 4	10 - 0	23 - 7

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 05, 2019	279	Montana St.	W	89-68	98%
Nov 08, 2019	191	Weber St.	W	86-69	94%
Nov 12, 2019	305	Denver	W	85-62	98%
Nov 15, 2019	325	N.C. A&T	W	83-58	99%
Nov 18, 2019	121	Texas San Antonio	W	85-74	84%
Nov 22, 2019	20	LSU	L	77-78	45%
Nov 29, 2019	19	@ St. Mary's	L	66-71	34%
Dec 04, 2019	330	@ San Jose St.	W	85-65	95%
Dec 07, 2019	118	Fresno St.	W	77-66	84%
Dec 14, 2019	67	BYU	W	81-77	62%
Dec 18, 2019	79	South Florida	W	74-69	66%
Dec 21, 2019	7	Florida	L	65-71	31%
Jan 01, 2020	146	@ UNLV	W	78-70	74%
Jan 04, 2020	77	San Diego St.	W	75-67	75%
Jan 07, 2020	170	@ Air Force	W	76-67	78%
Jan 11, 2020	95	Nevada	W	80-70	80%
Jan 18, 2020	90	@ Boise St.	W	73-70	61%
Jan 21, 2020	170	Air Force	W	79-64	90%
Jan 25, 2020	179	Colorado St.	W	82-66	91%
Jan 28, 2020	275	@ Wyoming	W	80-65	89%
Feb 01, 2020	77	@ San Diego St.	W	72-70	56%
Feb 05, 2020	146	UNLV	W	81-67	87%
Feb 08, 2020	90	Boise St.	W	76-67	78%
Feb 11, 2020	179	@ Colorado St.	W	79-69	80%
Feb 15, 2020	118	@ Fresno St.	W	74-69	67%
Feb 19, 2020	275	Wyoming	W	83-62	96%
Feb 25, 2020	330	San Jose St.	W	88-62	98%
Feb 29, 2020	92	@ New Mexico	W	84-80	61%
Projected Record						22 - 6	14 - 4

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mountain West Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	1.5	5.7	12.2	15.4	13.3	6.8		55.0	1st
2nd											0.0	0.2	1.8	5.6	7.2	4.5	1.3	0.1			20.7	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.1	1.4	3.8	3.9	1.4	0.2					10.9	3rd
4th									0.0	0.1	0.8	2.3	2.1	0.6	0.0						5.9	4th
5th								0.0	0.0	0.4	1.5	1.3	0.3	0.0							3.6	5th
6th								0.0	0.3	1.0	0.8	0.2	0.0								2.2	6th
7th							0.0	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.0									1.0	7th
8th					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0											0.5	8th
9th				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0												0.2	9th
10th				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0													0.0	10th
11th			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0															0.0	11th

Total			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.4	1.0	1.9	3.3	5.3	8.1	11.6	14.4	16.8	16.7	13.4	6.8			Total

Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	6.8		6.8
17-1	99.2%	13.3		12.6	0.7
16-2	92.0%	15.4		12.6	2.7	0.1
15-3	72.5%	12.2		7.7	4.0	0.5	0.0
14-4	39.4%	5.7		2.3	2.4	0.9	0.1	0.0
13-5	13.1%	1.5		0.3	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0
12-6	1.7%	0.1		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%	0.0					0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	55.0%	55.0		42.3	10.5	1.8	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	6.8%		98.3%	70.7%	27.5%	3.9		0.9	1.2	1.2	1.3	0.7	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0					0.1		94.0%
17-1	13.4%		93.2%	59.0%	34.2%	6.2		0.2	0.7	1.3	1.9	1.7	1.4	1.3	1.1	0.9	0.8	0.8	0.3	0.0				0.9		83.4%
16-2	16.7%		83.7%	52.7%	30.9%	8.5		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	1.0	1.3	1.6	1.4	2.0	2.2	2.3	1.1	0.1	0.0			2.7		65.5%
15-3	16.8%		67.3%	41.8%	25.5%	10.1			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	0.5	0.8	1.5	2.2	3.4	2.1	0.2	0.0			5.5		43.8%
14-4	14.4%		47.2%	32.1%	15.1%	11.1						0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	1.0	2.3	2.3	0.5	0.0	0.0		7.6		22.2%
13-5	11.6%		34.1%	26.6%	7.5%	11.7							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	1.1	1.7	0.6	0.1	0.0		7.7		10.2%
12-6	8.1%		20.1%	16.8%	3.3%	12.1								0.0		0.0	0.0	0.3	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.0		6.5		4.0%
11-7	5.3%		17.0%	16.3%	0.7%	12.6										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0		4.4		0.9%
10-8	3.3%		9.8%	9.6%	0.3%	12.7											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	2.9		0.3%
9-9	1.9%		6.6%	6.6%		13.7													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		1.8
8-10	1.0%		2.0%	2.0%		13.1													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.9
7-11	0.4%		3.7%	3.7%		13.1													0.0		0.0	0.0		0.4
6-12	0.1%		1.0%	1.0%		13.7														0.0	0.0			0.1
5-13	0.1%																							0.1
4-14	0.0%																							0.0
3-15	0.0%																							0.0
2-16	0.0%																							0.0
1-17
0-18

Total	100%		58.2%	39.0%	19.3%	8.5		1.2	2.0	2.7	3.9	3.6	3.7	3.9	3.6	5.0	6.6	10.5	8.9	2.2	0.4	0.1	0.0	41.8		31.6%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.7%	100.0%	1.7	44.6	41.0	11.7	2.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.1%	100.0%	2.6	24.1	17.5	32.8	25.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.1%	100.0%	2.9	4.6	36.4	28.5	20.5	9.9